Me likey bouncey
Gallup’s 3-day tracking poll for today shows that the R’s have halved the D’s advantage from an 8-point high 3 days ago to 4 points today. The 3-day released September 2 had Obama on top by 50-42% while today’s has it at 48-44. Since the polling for today’s release was conducted Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, the new numbers only reflect roughly 1/3 of any bounce from Palin’s speech on Wednesday night, and not much from McCain’s speech last night. (Some of the polling on each day could have occurred after that same night’s speech, presumably for folks further west.)
Pretty decent numbers for McCain-Palin. We won’t see the full effect of any RNC bounce in this poll until Monday, but that’ll include 2 weekend days which tend to skew results. So in theory we’d need to wait until Thursday, but by then of course there will be new things happening which will likely affect the results.
Rasmussen’s 3-day, with the same 3-day caveats, has a statistical tie with Obama over McCain, 46-45. It’s 48-46 with leaners.
More interesting perhaps is Rasmussen’s attitude survey.
Palin’s favorability is at 58% (Obama and McCain are tied at 57, Biden is at 48). This, I think, is a significant factoid:
Among unaffiliated voters, favorable opinions of McCain have increased by eleven percentage points in a week—from 54% before the Palin announcement to 65% today.
That’s a big jump. And the following graf has a certain bombshell quality about it:
However, following the Wednesday night speech, voters are fairly evenly divided as to whether Palin or Obama has the better experience to be President. Forty-four percent (44%) of voters say Palin has the better experience while 48% say Obama has the edge. Among unaffiliated voters, 45% say Obama has better experience while 42% say Palin.
Obama leads among unaffiliated voters on this question by 3%. That’s comparing the top of one ticket to the bottom of the other!
I’m looking forward to the next Quinnipiac for Ohio. I think Palin’s going to be a big hit here.
First to your post below. McCain did what he had to do - his way. Its what he knows and anything else would have backfired. He was exactly right to keep speaking over the cheers at the end.
On the polls. IMO today is more of a reflection of the extremely Democratic Labor Day samples rolling off more than anything - you should not be polling on Labor Day, and in fact, Rasmussen did not in 04 - but because of the timing he kind of had to this year. We will know a lot more by the end of next week when everything shakes out.
It’s kind of hard to distinguish the Labor Day anomaly from the Obama speech bounce. The Labor Day thing doesn’t look too big in any case. But I don’t disagree with anything you wrote.
http://news.yahoo.com/story//politico/20080907/pl_politico/13228
I was just sent this by email:
John McCain has overtaken Barack Obama in the Gallup daily tracking poll and has his highest level of support in that poll since early May.
McCain leads Obama 48 percent to 45 percent among registered voters, by Gallup’s measure. McCain has so far earned the same convention bounce as Obama, though at a more rapid pace.
I think the Labor Day / Obama speech effect came together.
Sorry to gloat, but I’ve lived in a red state for the last eight years that finally saw the errors of its ways. Sorry about McCain’s luck.
Me likey bouncy…:
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